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What is that formula about?

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

He used Bayes theorem to find the answer without simulation. It is 1 / 13 , verified by simulation.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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How do you use Bayes Theorem?

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

It is pretty much a plug in to a formula. We will need the solution to a which is 2 / 13 and some notation. Ready?

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

You also need the solution to b).

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

b) he has by a nice piece of reasoning to be 1 / 2.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

I saw it. But I am not sure it must be true. How do you know that all exits have the same probability of being exited through?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

I checked his answer using a markov chain and it also agreed with his simulation.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

I am not saying that the answer of 1/2 is not correct. Just that the reasoning you guys used might not be sound (I am referring to the one where you claim that the probability is 1/2 because two halves of the exits are on 3).

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

The simulation and the Markov chain is what I base the 1/2. But his idea does appear to work.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

d)i) seems to be around 0.246...

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

You might be right I do not know yet.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

The number's are varying a lot. I am getting stuff from 0.246 to 0.2464 .

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

If that is a simulation, that is not a big variation.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

I bigger one (10 million tries) gave 0.246225.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

You can easily determine the accuracy of that answer.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

How?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

You can be pretty sure that the true answer lies between those two numbers,

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

Why is that?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

It is based on statistics using the standard deviation.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

Anyway... Do you have an idea what the exact answer might be?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

Hi;

Not yet, I am swamped right now and have not looked at it.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: The Foundation
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 15,343

Okay. Post if you get anything...

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

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bobbym wrote:

Ready?

Yes!

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 84,454

Hi Agnishom;

I am sorry but I have completely forgot what we were going to go over.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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