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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

Okay, I will wait till then.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

Hi Agnishom;

I am getting ≈ 0.077 for c).

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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How?

My Approach was like this: P(starting from 1) = (No. of times it starts from 1 and leaves through 3)/(No.of times it leaves through 3)

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

Hi;

That is very difficult to answer when someone gets an programming answer that may be incorrect or may not be.

Your reasoning looks okay. But 35%? Doesn't that seem a little high to you after all it only starts in 1, 25% of the time.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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You are correct but what should I do now?

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

anonimnystefy and I just were discussing c) and he showed me where I was going wrong with it too. This is a difficult one to do by simulation because it has a conditional probability in it.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

Are you sure you are counting the events correctly?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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Have you done it?

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

Hmmm, you are never sure of anything, I could be making a mistake. That is why I stress having at least two methods. One checks the other.

But do you agree 35% is too high?

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

bobbym wrote:

Hmmm, you are never sure of anything, I could be making a mistake. That is why I stress having at least two methods. One checks the other.

But do you agree 35% is too high?

I was talking to Agnishom.

Hi Agnishom

bobbym has done it and I believe his answer is correct.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

The simulation looks okay to get the numerator and the denominator. I am looking for an analytical solution to back up the simulation!

A very rough analysis gives 1 / 16 which is close to the simulation.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

Could you run the simulation a gew more times and post the results?

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

Same thing, I suspect the exact answer is 1 / 13.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

1/13 is the correct answer. Remember our friend Bayes?

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

He is no friend of mine. Lucky he is long since gone.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

A figure of speech.

Have you tried using the Bayes' theorem. It gives 1/13, whoch agrees with your simulation!

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

I have not tried it, how did you set it up?

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

Just plugged the numbers in.

P(A|B)=P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B)= (2/13)*(1/4)/(1/2)=1/13.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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A smiley?

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

Ah, thanks, bobbym.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

That looks simplest.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

It is. I was amazed when I figured it out.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

Yes, you did well. Very good!

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,015

Thanks. Have you figured out what went wrong in Agnishom's simulation?

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 103,717

I have not seen it yet. He might have a logic error in the program.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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