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#27 2012-12-31 07:05:20
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
It is possible to go up with a bigger sample size like 4000.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#29 2012-12-31 07:09:56
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
It is possible to go up to outside 4 sd or more with a bigger sample.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#31 2012-12-31 07:20:42
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Hi;
All I am saying is that it is possible to get closer to the average or further away from it. I am not making any other comment.
Of course you can have a sample that is 1 standard deviation away from the average with 1000 spins and 3 standard deviations away with 2000 spins. That could happen.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#33 2012-12-31 07:30:10
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Sure, it can go to anything. What is it you want to know?
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#35 2012-12-31 07:38:46
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
That is not exactly how it works. As I said as the sample size goes up the sd goes up. That is normal. Whether or not it is outside of 3 or 4 standard deviations is what counts.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#37 2012-12-31 07:46:48
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
The standard deviation is not what is important, what is important is how far your result is from the average. In your case 44 is more than 3 sd from the average (27) that means it only has 1 chance in 380 of being a random event. But that is not 0.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#39 2012-12-31 07:54:56
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
That has nothing to do with what we are talking about right now. That is a separate question.
We are talking about standard deviation and I presume randomness.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#41 2012-12-31 08:00:26
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Not really. Based on the single sample you gave me of 44 out of 1000 hits with a probability of 1 / 37 I have answered the question. There is a only a 1 in 380 chance that that occurred by chance. Whether you feel that is enough is up to you. As I said it is not impossible that wheel is okay, just unlikely.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#42 2012-12-31 08:11:13
- ybot
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
What about 48/1000?
Sometimes it happens that you have 38/1000(2sd), then you have 73/2000(2.5sd), 108/3000(3sd) and 149/4000(4sd). It rises.
149/4000 means an "hipotetic" +34% edge
48/1000(4sd) looks stronger with its +72.8%
Both %s are not actually true. I want to know how it works
#43 2012-12-31 08:21:03
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
What about 48/1000?
That would be more than 4 sd away from the average. The chance that could happen by chance is about 1 / 15780. Quite rare.
48/1000(4sd) looks stronger with its +72.8%
You cannot yet assume that the sample mean is the actual average.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#45 2012-12-31 08:32:16
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Because the sample size is larger than 30, in this case it is 1000, I would say we can expect that the true mean of that number to be 6/125 rather than 1 / 37.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#47 2012-12-31 08:49:34
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
What is the difference between 1/20.83 or 48/1000?
No difference, except usually you do not use decimals.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#49 2012-12-31 08:56:54
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
No I do not. I was a [deleted].
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#50 2012-12-31 09:03:29
- ybot
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
So, as a [deleted], playing the basic strategy you would be able to be +1,5% over the HE.
And, as a [deleted] you could have a range of advantage over other regular players.
How do you know when you have the edge and how much?
At a moment in the year/month/decade you can say that you have (for example) 5% edge over any other player or the house. How would you gauge it?