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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

4sd has a lower probabily but I often have 3sd at 1000 o 2000 and after 1000 to 3000 more trials we get 4sd.

The cause we could input to smart predictions

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

It is possible to go up with a bigger sample size like 4000.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.**

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

Why not?

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

It is possible to go up to outside 4 sd or more with a bigger sample.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.**

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

It is very unlikely but isn't impossible.

Supose I know things that other people don't.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

Hi;

All I am saying is that it is possible to get closer to the average or further away from it. I am not making any other comment.

Of course you can have a sample that is 1 standard deviation away from the average with 1000 spins and 3 standard deviations away with 2000 spins. That could happen.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.**

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

What about 4 st dev in 2000?

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

Sure, it can go to anything. What is it you want to know?

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

These events are phisics related.

The sd number will rise, is where you realise that you are facing a non-random event.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

That is not exactly how it works. As I said as the sample size goes up the sd goes up. That is normal. Whether or not it is outside of 3 or 4 standard deviations is what counts.

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

There is where I don't catch the relations.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

The standard deviation is not what is important, what is important is how far your result is from the average. In your case 44 is more than 3 sd from the average (27) that means it only has 1 chance in 380 of being a random event. But that is not 0.

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

In addition to be far 3 or 4 sd from the average we must beat the house edge(he) first(2,7%) and get some extra % of profit.

To achieve it we need to be further from the average.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

That has nothing to do with what we are talking about right now. That is a separate question.

We are talking about standard deviation and I presume randomness.

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

The conection between them makes hard to undestand what we witness

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

Not really. Based on the single sample you gave me of 44 out of 1000 hits with a probability of 1 / 37 I have answered the question. There is a only a 1 in 380 chance that that occurred by chance. Whether you feel that is enough is up to you. As I said it is not impossible that wheel is okay, just unlikely.

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

What about 48/1000?

Sometimes it happens that you have 38/1000(2sd), then you have 73/2000(2.5sd), 108/3000(3sd) and 149/4000(4sd). It rises.

149/4000 means an "hipotetic" +34% edge

48/1000(4sd) looks stronger with its +72.8%

Both %s are not actually true. I want to know how it works

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

What about 48/1000?

That would be more than 4 sd away from the average. The chance that could happen by chance is about 1 / 15780. Quite rare.

48/1000(4sd) looks stronger with its +72.8%

You cannot yet assume that the sample mean is the actual average.

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

Quite rare for random events, widespread for non-random facts.

27/1000 is the average, no doubt.

48/1000 is possible

Supose you find a bigger pocket

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

Because the sample size is larger than 30, in this case it is 1000, I would say we can expect that the true mean of that number to be 6/125 rather than 1 / 37.

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

1/20.83?(6/125) Why?

What is the difference between 1/20.83 or 48/1000?

We use to have more than 30.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

What is the difference between 1/20.83 or 48/1000?

No difference, except usually you do not use decimals.

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

I undestand why you as yourself and think I'm mad.

I work with non-random events daily.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 86,676

No I do not. I was a [deleted].

Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?

Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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**ybot****Member**- Registered: 2012-12-29
- Posts: 49

So, as a [deleted], playing the basic strategy you would be able to be +1,5% over the HE.

And, as a [deleted] you could have a range of advantage over other regular players.

How do you know when you have the edge and how much?

At a moment in the year/month/decade you can say that you have (for example) 5% edge over any other player or the house. How would you gauge it?

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