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#1 2015-05-07 21:13:15

Olinguito
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Registered: 2014-08-12
Posts: 649

2015 UK General Election

With 636 of 650 seats declared (as of time of posting), David Cameron looks set to remain in office in 10 Downing Street for another five years. The Conservatives currently have 320 seats and need a further 5 of the remaining 14 seats to get the overall majority. But even if there is a hung parliament, a simple power-sharing deal with the DUP will be enough for Cameron to retain his government.

It all means Nick Clegg will no longer be Deputy Prime Minister of the UK – hooray! Who can forget or forgive what that big liar did in the last election? Five years ago, the Liberal Democrats promised that they would not increase tuition fees; then, as soon as they got to share power with the Tories, they did a complete U-turn and said tuition fees should rise. That was what did it for the Lib Dems this time round. Just look at the Lib Dems now! They have lost 46 seats and gained none – NONE – in their worst ever performance in a general election in their whole history. Serve them right!


Bassaricyon neblina

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#2 2015-05-07 22:12:17

David
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From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2014-04-23
Posts: 3,135

Re: 2015 UK General Election

I heard Ed Miliband is expected to quit due to the disappointing result.


Meaningless, meaningless, Everything is meaningless! - Ecclesiastes 1:2

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#3 2015-05-07 23:39:09

Olinguito
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Registered: 2014-08-12
Posts: 649

Re: 2015 UK General Election

And the Conservatives have got their majority. With 7 seats still to be declared, they have 326 seats.


Bassaricyon neblina

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#4 2015-05-07 23:55:25

David
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From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2014-04-23
Posts: 3,135

Re: 2015 UK General Election


Meaningless, meaningless, Everything is meaningless! - Ecclesiastes 1:2

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#5 2017-04-20 01:11:08

zetafunc
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Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

The UK will officially be holding another general election this year, and we will go to the polls on the 8th of June.

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#6 2017-04-21 22:59:36

zetafunc
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Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Current predictions (according to electoralcalculus.co.uk):

electoralcalculus18apr_resized.png

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#7 2017-04-22 00:01:29

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Looks complicated.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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#8 2017-04-23 02:02:46

Agnishom
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From: Riemann Sphere
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 24,838
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Complicated in what way?


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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#9 2017-04-23 02:18:32

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Lots of parties.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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#10 2017-04-23 04:38:34

bob bundy
Administrator
Registered: 2010-06-20
Posts: 8,138

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Apparently, but really there's only two:  the 'in it for how much I can make' party and the 'I really want to make the world a better place' party, which is everyone else.

Unfortunately, the media tend to promote the former.  swear

Bob


Children are not defined by school ...........The Fonz
You cannot teach a man anything;  you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei

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#11 2017-04-23 05:46:30

zetafunc
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Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

bob bundy wrote:

Apparently, but really there's only two:  the 'in it for how much I can make' party and the 'I really want to make the world a better place' party, which is everyone else.

Unfortunately, the media tend to promote the former.  swear

Bob

It's going to be an interesting election. I'm almost certain that the Conservatives will win: most predict a landslide, but I suspect they'll have an increased majority, but not quite as large as they hope. The Tories want to make the election about Brexit. The Labour party (at least, Corbyn, anyway) want to make it about the people versus the establishment. The Lib Dems, having nothing to lose (considering they were decimated in the previous election) will be running on the hope that people who voted Remain in the EU referendum last year will vote for them, as they are promising a second referendum. However, Tim Farron has ruled out a coalition with Labour, yet does not rule out a coalition with the Tories -- and we all remember what happened the last time they did that. I am paying £36000 in tuition fees instead of £12000, in part due to Nick Clegg's broken promise -- and I hope the voters do not forget that. The Greens are pushing for a liberal alliance, and I'm not quite sure what UKIP want to do -- their party's aims have already been achieved (Brexit), so it would be of no surprise to see them lose support to the Conservatives, who are the closest politically to UKIP (not including minor parties such as the BNP).

I will be voting for Mr. Corbyn's Labour, but I don't think he'll do very well. No matter how appealing some of his policies are (and indeed, the public tend to be in favour of his policies, on the whole), he is perceived as being weak and ineffectual, which has not been helped by the people in his own party constantly knifing him in the back, and that probably wouldn't change even if Corbyn came to power.

Last edited by zetafunc (2017-04-23 05:51:27)

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#12 2017-04-24 04:38:42

zetafunc
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Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Update:

electoralcalculus24aprc.jpg

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#13 2017-04-25 04:05:43

Agnishom
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From: Riemann Sphere
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 24,838
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

bobbym wrote:

Lots of parties.

That's a good thing, right?


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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#14 2017-04-25 04:07:30

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Not really. It confuses people having more than one choice.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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#15 2017-04-26 10:21:35

zetafunc
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Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
Website

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Another update:

electoralcalculus26aprc.jpg

And another update, 27 Apr:

electoralcalculus27aprc.jpg

Last edited by zetafunc (2017-04-27 04:59:45)

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#16 2017-04-27 15:48:59

Agnishom
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From: Riemann Sphere
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 24,838
Website

Re: 2015 UK General Election

bobbym wrote:

Not really. It confuses people having more than one choice.

Well, what could you do about that, people will be stupid anyway


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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#17 2017-04-27 20:00:39

bob bundy
Administrator
Registered: 2010-06-20
Posts: 8,138

Re: 2015 UK General Election

hi Agnishom,

An oft-cited objection to Britain being a member of the European Union is that the EU forces silly 'directives' on member states.  The bent banana directive has been used for years by Eurosceptics as a reason that belonging is foolish.  The Wiki article explains quite well the true facts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commissio … nt_bananas

Just in case you think British citizens can only buy straight bananas here is a photo of the shelves at a well known supermarket not far from my house:

4nlzHsG.jpg

During the 'Brexit' debate a lady (in the audience) said on national television that she had decided to change her vote from 'Remain' to 'Leave' because she wanted to be able to buy bent bananas.  She was widely ridiculed but the Daily Mail continued to run the directive criticism story.

The Leave campaign had a battlebus:

LKb3zOP.jpg

The financial editor of the BBC demonstrated on Tv that this figure was completely untrue.

The (unbiased) head of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Andrew Dilnot, censured the £350m a week claim and told the Leave campaign they should alter it.  They were also widely criticised in the media.

They changed to 'poster' to read '50 million a day' !

sYt0Tdi.jpg

The day after the referendum result Nigel Farage admitted that it was a lie.

Sometimes I despair of there ever being intelligent debate in this country.  sob sob!

Bob


Children are not defined by school ...........The Fonz
You cannot teach a man anything;  you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei

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#18 2017-04-27 20:25:09

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Well, what could you do about that, people will be stupid anyway

Over here the two party system has been confusing the people since the beginning. Grandpappyd had the solution. One guy runs and the rest stand around him holding automatic weapons. Everyone votes for this fellow or else. Anybody says buh and they get decapitated. The only flaw I can see in his proposal...why do we need those guys standing around with the automatic weapons if we are decapitating?

Bob's banana story is making me hungry. Those b's look pretty good from here.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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#19 2017-04-27 21:04:18

bob bundy
Administrator
Registered: 2010-06-20
Posts: 8,138

Re: 2015 UK General Election

With the combination of global warming and Brexit, I expect we'll be growing our own bananas soon here in the UK.  smile

Theresa May's 'excuse' for calling an early general election: She's fed up with the opposition MPs actually trying to prevent her from doing what she wants.  She's hoping there'll be no opposition at all after June 8th.  She may (no pun intended) get her wish.

Before the referendum she was a Remain supporter.  Her election constituency voted in favour of Remain in the referendum.  Odd that she is now a Brexit supporter.

Bob


Children are not defined by school ...........The Fonz
You cannot teach a man anything;  you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei

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#20 2017-04-27 21:17:52

zetafunc
Moderator
Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
Website

Re: 2015 UK General Election

bob bundy wrote:

Theresa May's 'excuse' for calling an early general election: She's fed up with the opposition MPs actually trying to prevent her from doing what she wants.  She's hoping there'll be no opposition at all after June 8th.  She may (no pun intended) get her wish.

I suspect it also has something to do with the Tory election expenses scandal. At least 30 Tory MPs could potentially be prosecuted for it, and I believe the results of the investigation were scheduled to be presented sometime in early May. Theoretically, if those MPs suddenly lost their seats, the Conservatives would lose their majority. But calling this election seems to brush that under the rug somewhat, especially given that the candidates under investigation are still able to stand for re-election.

Anyway, I think the only direction the Conservatives' polling will go is down at this point.

Last edited by zetafunc (2017-04-27 21:22:45)

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#21 2017-04-27 21:25:15

bob bundy
Administrator
Registered: 2010-06-20
Posts: 8,138

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Yes, I agree.  That's why I put 'excuse' in inverted commas.

There's another reason too.  In three year's time, when she has to have an election, the Brexit deal will be known by all.  She may not be so popular then.

But didn't she argue that the Scottish people shouldn't be allowed a referendum until the facts are known.  That's funny; it's almost as if she makes up the rules to suit herself. 

Bob


Children are not defined by school ...........The Fonz
You cannot teach a man anything;  you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei

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#22 2017-04-27 21:37:27

zetafunc
Moderator
Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
Website

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Indeed. Not to mention the fact that she repeatedly stated we wouldn't have a snap election before Brexit, and now here we are -- talking about 'strong and stable leadership', a 'coalition of chaos', and a 'mugwump'.

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#23 2017-05-01 06:28:11

zetafunc
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Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Here's a pretty damning report about our PM trying to negotiate with the EU. https://twitter.com/i/moments/858943560594235393

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#24 2017-05-01 11:57:24

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Hi;

Was that her going from door to door?


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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#25 2017-05-08 23:01:45

zetafunc
Moderator
Registered: 2014-05-21
Posts: 2,107
Website

Re: 2015 UK General Election

She has been knocking on doors during the campaign, yes -- although she has been criticised for avoiding the public.

The newest prediction from Electoral Calculus shows the gap as wide as ever:

electoralcalculus09mayc.jpg

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