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## #1 2016-04-30 22:59:31

Relentless
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Registered: 2015-12-15
Posts: 624

### Two boxes

Hi everyone!

What do you think of the famous Newcomb's paradox?

The player is presented with two boxes and, wishing only to maximise the amount of money he receives, may take both boxes or only box A. Box B contains \$1k. Already it seems clear that taking both boxes is dominant; however, at least for most, it is about to become less clear. Before the decision is made, a brain-scanner with a demonstrated near-perfect accuracy predicts the decision. If it predicts that the player will choose only box A, box A contains \$1m. Otherwise, it is empty.

Which would you choose? (:

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## #2 2016-05-01 03:54:29

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Registered: 2016-04-16
Posts: 1,086

### Re: Two boxes

Is it a fiction?

{1}Vasudhaiva Kutumakam.{The whole Universe is a family.}
(2)Yatra naaryasthu poojyanthe Ramanthe tatra Devataha
{Gods rejoice at those places where ladies are respected.}

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## #3 2016-05-01 04:50:31

Relentless
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Registered: 2015-12-15
Posts: 624

### Re: Two boxes

Yes, it is a very divisive hypothetical. I think it could still be controversial with a fallible human predictor, however.

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## #4 2016-05-01 17:35:13

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Registered: 2016-04-16
Posts: 1,086

### Re: Two boxes

It is not clear whose brain is scanned and what is the result? What is the probability that the prediction can go wrong?Is the predictor independent or is associated with manipulating the contents of the box?

{1}Vasudhaiva Kutumakam.{The whole Universe is a family.}
(2)Yatra naaryasthu poojyanthe Ramanthe tatra Devataha
{Gods rejoice at those places where ladies are respected.}

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## #5 2016-05-01 20:14:53

Relentless
Member
Registered: 2015-12-15
Posts: 624

### Re: Two boxes

Suppose your brain is scanned; is it correct to one-box or two-box? The probability of the prediction going wrong is close to zero in this example (although I think the problem persists whenever the probability is below 49.5%). The predictor chooses, based on the prediction, what is in the box (for the sake of argument, say the prediction occurs before the boxes are presented to you). A million dollars if it predicts you will take one box, and nothing if it predicts you will take both.

Shall I explain the intuitions of those arriving at either answer to make clear what is so difficult?

Last edited by Relentless (2016-05-01 20:20:32)

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## #6 2016-05-04 08:11:39

Relentless
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Registered: 2015-12-15
Posts: 624