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## #26 2014-09-09 07:04:58

Agnishom
Real Member
From: Riemann Sphere
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 24,838
Website

### Re: Markov chains

bobbym wrote:

What do you need specifically before we move on to a real problem?

I beg your forgiveness for interruption but please explain me the commands in post 1

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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## #27 2014-09-09 07:11:04

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

You were not interrupting, I was talking to you.

An exact question. The A matrix is the transition matrix.

P2 = DiscreteMarkovProcess[3, A];
PDF[P2[\[Infinity]], 5]

P2 is now what M calls that matrix ( who knows ), anyway it represents that matrix starting in state 3, which is our state 2.

PDF means probability density function. Fancy jargon term. P2[∞ ] means take the limit of that matrix as if it were raised up to infinity. The long haul!

Next command just get the probability of the process starting in state 3 ending in state 5 after an infinite number of states.

The problem you are mentioning sounds more like the "Shaq, Magic, Dudley free throw contest" than a Markov Chain. It can be done as anonimnystefy suggests but it is more work.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #28 2014-09-09 07:32:41

Agnishom
Real Member
From: Riemann Sphere
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 24,838
Website

### Re: Markov chains

I've already drawn that 12 state Markov chain long time back.

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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## #29 2014-09-09 07:34:23

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Did you understand what the commands do?

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #30 2014-09-09 09:13:59

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Hm, actually, make it 9 states.

What should the answer be? I am getting

Last edited by anonimnystefy (2014-09-09 09:50:15)

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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## #31 2014-09-09 11:08:55

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

The game stops when 1 prisoner is left which could be prisoner 1?

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #32 2014-09-09 11:19:28

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Yes, so? We are looking for the probability that No. 1 is released.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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## #33 2014-09-09 11:30:01

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Okay, just wanted to clarify the rules a bit.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #34 2014-09-09 11:32:45

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Okay. Are you getting any results?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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## #35 2014-09-09 11:35:04

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Yes, I believe I am the only one that ever listens to what I say. Could be because I am inside myself.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #36 2014-09-09 11:36:34

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Are you ever beside yourself?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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## #37 2014-09-09 11:38:18

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Beside like alongside?

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #38 2014-09-09 11:43:59

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Hm, have you ever read Migrations by Milos Crnjanski?

And, why do you think nobody listens to you?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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## #39 2014-09-09 11:46:42

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Nope, I never read anything modern. I do not like the way reppies write.

And, why do you think nobody listens to you?

You are right, that is much too pessimistic, just you and Agnishom.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #40 2014-09-09 11:49:08

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Modern? It was written in 1929.

Why do you think we don't listen?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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## #41 2014-09-09 11:54:11

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

So were Mein Kampf and Das Kapital and The Origin of the Species written around then or before.

Neither of you followed rule 1 or rule 2.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #42 2014-09-09 11:55:31

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Rule 1 and rule 2?

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

Offline

## #43 2014-09-09 11:57:23

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Rule 1 and rule 2?

That is my point.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #44 2014-09-09 12:04:06

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

What are they? I probably don't know them as such.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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## #45 2014-09-09 12:12:28

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

See post #3.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

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## #46 2014-09-09 12:15:45

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Ah, but you see, I would have if I could have.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

Offline

## #47 2014-09-09 12:17:43

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Since it is skill numero uno that is the one you work on hard.

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.
Always satisfy the Prime Directive of getting the right answer above all else.

Offline

## #48 2014-09-09 13:15:16

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: Harlan's World
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 16,037

### Re: Markov chains

Hm, got the sim working and it got the same answer. The probability of no. 1 staying last is 121/184, so the probability we want is 63/184.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.
Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment
The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

Offline

## #49 2014-09-09 19:35:45

Agnishom
Real Member
From: Riemann Sphere
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 24,838
Website

### Re: Markov chains

anonimnystefy wrote:

Hm, actually, make it 9 states.

What should the answer be? I am getting

How do I get 9 states?

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

Offline

## #50 2014-09-09 20:28:09

bobbym
bumpkin
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 109,606

### Re: Markov chains

Hi;

Hm, got the sim working and it got the same answer.