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In a cookie jar, there are 6 chocolate chip cookies and 8 oatmeal cookies. Hungry Paddy takes out the cookies one at a time and proceeds to eat them. The probability that the 7th cookie that Paddy eats is a chocolate chip cookie is a/b, where a and b are positive coprime integers. What is the value of a+b?

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

Hi;

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.** **A number by itself is useful, but it is far more useful to know how accurate or certain that number is.**

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Thanks but how to do?

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

Hi;

This sort of tells you it doesn't matter what number you pick to eat a chocolate chip cookie.

Actually this is a trick question and no computation at all is required to solve it.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.** **A number by itself is useful, but it is far more useful to know how accurate or certain that number is.**

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How did you get into that formula?

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

It is really just a joke but I used the box model. It is unnecessary!

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.** **A number by itself is useful, but it is far more useful to know how accurate or certain that number is.**

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Why should it be a joke?

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

Because it is a trick question and using a computational idea on it just shows how stupid I am.

I ask you this what is the probability that the 15 th card from the top of a standard deck is a 5?

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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So how do you answer that question? I am still clueless

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

What is the chance that the top card of the deck is a 5?

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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1/52

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

That would be a particular 5 like the 5 of spades. There are 4 fives. Please recompute the answer.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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1/13 ?

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

That is correct. Now you see that the 15th card is just the same as the top card.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

If someone phrases the question a little bit different, I bring in the heavy machinery. No wonder my back is bad.

Confucius says,"Don't use a cannon to kill a mosquito."

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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The fiftteenth card isn't the same as the first. If any of the previous fourteen were a five, then the fifteenth could not have been a five

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

You have no information like that. The 15th card has the same amount of information that the first card has. For instance, if I count down to the 15 th card and put it on top has it's probability changed?

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,000

I am intrigued by this problem.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

Just understand that it is the card problem reworded. It can be verified by the above calculation or by enumeration. The probability is always the same.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,000

Yes, I know. I read the discussion.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 102,287

I just have to convince Agnishom and he can be a toughie.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.****If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.**

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bobbym wrote:

The fifteenth card has the same amound of information

Nope. When you have gone down to the fifteenth card you already have the information of the fourteen cards above

*Last edited by Agnishom (2013-04-14 02:29:00)*

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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**anonimnystefy****Real Member**- From: Harlan's World
- Registered: 2011-05-23
- Posts: 16,000

What information do you have about it? You do not look at the first 14 cards.

Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most. ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

The knowledge of some things as a function of age is a delta function.

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There are many different ways in which it can turn out to be a five.

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

I'm not crazy, my mother had me tested.

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