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#26 2013-04-06 02:02:23

Agnishom
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From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
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Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Got it,
Thanks bobbyM and gAr

So after all this isn't related to Bayes'?


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

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#27 2013-04-06 02:03:38

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Why do you say that?


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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#28 2013-04-06 02:05:36

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Because I don't see where you use it


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#29 2013-04-06 02:08:37

gAr
Member
Registered: 2011-01-09
Posts: 3,462

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Hi Agnishom,

It is related to Bayes', we just didn't write a formula for that!


"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense"  - Buddha?

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

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#30 2013-04-06 02:09:59

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

There is a formula that covers what he did, it is called the extended form of Bayes theorem.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

Online

#31 2013-04-06 02:21:45

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

I tried to match that too.

p(a|b) = (p(b|a)*p(a))/((p(b|a)*p(a))+(p(b|not a)*p(not a))


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#32 2013-04-06 02:28:35

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

What you wrote is the extended form:

That has the form of his answer. That is what I was working on, trying to fill that in but I must have missed something.

His use of the tree is better, it lends itself to computation better.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

Online

#33 2013-04-06 02:38:10

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Surely thats better.

But how do you use that formula?


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#34 2013-04-06 02:39:48

gAr
Member
Registered: 2011-01-09
Posts: 3,462

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

I thought of something like:

and we have


"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense"  - Buddha?

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

Offline

#35 2013-04-06 02:41:11

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Hi;

Look at his answer:

then look at the formula:

try replacing corresponding parts.

I did not see gAr's answer until I posted. He got the solution so he is the guy to ask.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

Online

#36 2013-04-06 02:57:29

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Now in that part, what does A and B stand for?


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#37 2013-04-06 03:01:10

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Hi Agnishom;

You are forgetting that I did not get the answer so I must not have filled that formula in correctly.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

Online

#38 2013-04-06 03:04:45

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Okay, I am contended with the tree anyway. Next time I will think of one


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#39 2013-04-06 03:06:19

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

gAr wrote:

I thought of something like:

and we have

Yes, yes, it seems more clear but how does it fit into the formula?

I mean how do you relate the calculation with it?

Last edited by Agnishom (2013-04-06 03:07:09)


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#40 2013-04-06 03:15:00

gAr
Member
Registered: 2011-01-09
Posts: 3,462

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Hi,


You can plug in the values now..


"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense"  - Buddha?

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

Offline

#41 2013-04-06 03:24:22

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Okay! Thanks


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#42 2013-04-06 03:47:12

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Hi;

I found a couple of pages that agree with his approach and also calculate the number for you.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

Online

#43 2013-04-06 03:49:12

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Webpages?


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#44 2013-04-06 03:50:43

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

Hi;

Yes, websites. Have not gone over them completely so I do not know how good their computations are.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

Online

#45 2013-04-06 03:54:10

Agnishom
Real Member
From: The Complex Plane
Registered: 2011-01-29
Posts: 15,210
Website

Re: Bayes' theorem problem

May I have the link?


'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'
'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'
'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

Online

#46 2013-04-06 04:07:04

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 82,989

Re: Bayes' theorem problem


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.
All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

Online

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