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#1 2012-12-30 08:00:36
- ybot
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binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Hi
About french european roulette
the chance to hit es 1/37
supose we are looking for 3 standard deviation events
43 hits in 1000 trials is 3 st dev(we played 1 number)
1)what does reaching 3 st dev mean?
2)what is the difference in strentgh of hitting 76/2000, 170/5000 or 319/10000(they are all +3sd)
3)what´s the difference in PLAYING the 1000 2000 or whatever or watch some data where we you find 1 number with 3 st dev?
4)it is the same to reach 3 st dev for 1 number or 2 numbers(neighbors)?
5)having collectede data, you pick 4 numbers(isolated, not neighbors)) that their sum reaches 3 st dev. What is the difference with item 3) or if we actually play every spin?
I hope you undestood my questions
I believe they are hard to answer
Best regards
#2 2012-12-30 11:00:00
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Hi;
Welcome to the forum. It is not hard to understand once we clear up some things
43 hits in 1000 trials is 3 st dev(we played 1 number)
What are odds of hitting this number? I only know american roulette.
If the probability of hitting the number is 1 / 37 then you are correct the result is slightly beyond 3 standard deviations. What conclusion do you want drawn?
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#4 2012-12-30 11:31:33
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
My quest is to identify a future non-random event before it happens.
Unless the wheel is biased you will not find it on a roulette table.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#6 2012-12-30 11:38:11
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
I used to deal it in Las Vegas. I know a little about Ed Thorpe and his methods to find biased wheels. I know about the computer that some players used to chart where the ball would fall.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#8 2012-12-30 11:45:53
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
You do not have to worry. I am not familiar with that abbreviation. What is an AP?
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#9 2012-12-30 12:03:44
- ybot
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Advantage Players(AP) are pro-players who only play when they have an edge over the house.
There are several ways to take advantage of the games of chance.
It's hard to believe for people who are not in this business.
I prefer to talk via PM.
Did you understand the questions?
#10 2012-12-30 12:21:20
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Hi;
I understand the questions but I can not communicate by PM with you.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#12 2012-12-31 04:53:26
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Hi;
I will try to be simple in my explanation.
For any group of data there is a mean or average or expected value as it sometimes called in your case 27.027. It is the mean or expected value of the 1000 trials.
In other words the average of hitting your number in 1000 trials is 27.027
Do you follow?
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#14 2012-12-31 05:03:40
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Okay, if you have 3 pieces of data
500, 750 and 1000 the average is 750
if you have
749, 750 and 751 the average is also 750. But the data is much closer together than the other one even thought they have same average they are quite different in spread.
Follow up to here?
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#16 2012-12-31 05:13:38
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
The standard deviation is one measure of that spread. It tells us how spread out or how far from the average the data is.
In your case the standard deviation is
That is one standard deviation. We expect 68.26% of the data to be within -1 and 1 standard deviation of the average.
In your case in 1000 spins we expect your number to come up between 21.8990091 and 32.1550448 times 68.26 % of the time.
Follow?
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#18 2012-12-31 05:21:33
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
Okay, we expect that the data will be within 3 standard deviations of the mean 99.73 % of the time. Therefore it is about 370 to 1 that your result is due to chance. That answers your first question.
Now the question is have you found something meaningful? The answer is maybe!
In my experience such anomalous runs are more common then we think.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#21 2012-12-31 06:31:24
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
The standard deviation actually gets larger as n gets larger.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#23 2012-12-31 06:37:13
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
No, 4 sd is a lower probability of happening. The probabilities always stay the same.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.
#25 2012-12-31 06:50:53
- bobbym
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Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette
You are confusing the standard deviation with 3 standard deviations.
For your problem the standard deviation is 7.252 for 2000 and 5.128 for 1000, the average is the same. But to be 3 standard deviations away from the mean with 2000 you have be outside of 5.27 or 48.78. The probability of this happening is the same for 1000 or 2000. The ranges are different.
For 1000, it has to be outside of 11.64 or 42.41.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.
90% of mathematicians do not understand 90% of currently published mathematics.