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#1 2011-01-17 00:51:48

davelope
Member
Registered: 2011-01-17
Posts: 4

The Lottery

If you buy one lottery ticket in the UK your chances of winning are 1/14 Million, if you by TWO tickets the odds become 2/14 Million.. which is the same as 1/7million...

Therefore if you buy 2 tickets instead of one, you HALVE your chances of winning.

Who agrees?  (this is an ongoing debate between friends)

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#2 2011-01-17 00:59:06

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 86,807

Re: The Lottery

Hi davelope;

Welcome to the forum. If your statement about the odds is true then I would say you have doubled your chances of winning.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?
Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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#3 2011-01-17 00:59:11

davelope
Member
Registered: 2011-01-17
Posts: 4

Re: The Lottery

I mean DOUBLE your chance of winning... ie Halving the odds

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#4 2011-01-17 01:00:03

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 86,807

Re: The Lottery

What does it pay when you win?


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?
Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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#5 2011-01-17 01:01:25

bob bundy
Moderator
Registered: 2010-06-20
Posts: 6,398

Re: The Lottery

hi davelope

Oh dear!  Do your friends need a few lessons in fractions and probability?  smile

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html

1 chance in 7 million is definitely better than 1 in 14 million.

edit:  Estimated jackpot for Wed 19 Jan 2011 is:   £10,100,000

https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/player/p/results/lottoresults.ftl

Bob

Last edited by bob bundy (2011-01-17 01:04:46)


You cannot teach a man anything;  you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei

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#6 2011-01-17 01:21:45

davelope
Member
Registered: 2011-01-17
Posts: 4

Re: The Lottery

Thanks Bob, as I explained, it is the same as having a bag with 14 balls in it.

If you say "I predict ball 7 will be chosen" the chances are 1/14... if I say I think ball 7 OR ball 1 will be chosen, then the chances are 2/14 or 1/7

Exactly the same principal is at work in the lottery...  My friends couldn't believe that the odds changed so dramatically by simply having 2 tickets instead of 1. 

No matter how many times I tried to explain, they just DIDN'T GET IT......  And they still think I'm wrong...

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#7 2011-01-17 01:38:16

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 86,807

Re: The Lottery

Yes, the odds changed but not your expectation!


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?
Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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#8 2011-01-21 06:08:31

davelope
Member
Registered: 2011-01-17
Posts: 4

Re: The Lottery

From a friend:  Just wondered if anyone had any comments on it....

"my comment from two days ago was about: the positivist movement of scientists are very critical towards use of fraction logic in our attempt to understand the world... because the use of fraction logic assumes expectations that any data can be manipulated with fractions, and scientists are concerned with the subjective relativism of science or psychologism of science, i.e. science based on our mental representations of data/events rather than on the objective reality... So they urge the scientists to think of the meaning of statements when fraction logic is applied, e.g. if the room temperature yesterday was 17C and today is 34C to say that today is twice as hot as yesterday is meaningless... Buddhism is saying the same more categorically - transendetal knowledge is impossible and just being aware of our subjectivism is all we can do..."

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#9 2011-01-21 12:54:39

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 86,807

Re: The Lottery

Hi davelope;

Disclaimer: Present company excluded if you or anyone you know is a member of the fields being discussed here. Not intending to be unfriendly, just posting my opinion. You did ask for some comments.

Just wondered if anyone had any comments on it....

You are kidding right? Just try and shut me up. There has been an alarming trend in science lately. Particularly among the Geneticists and Bio guys. Piqued over recent simulations that do not coincide with their favorite notions ( I will not say which one ) they are mouthing off that mathematics is incorrect.

Forman S. Acton in his first book talks about his clashes with scientists who know little math but are convinced because they think they know what a chromosome or a schizophreniac is they also know what a Taylor series is. Until I ran into the same problem I was unaware how dogmatic and businesslike today's scientists had become.

Excerpt from a conversation:

J: I was talking to so and so, you know the blank.

bm: Yea, so?

J: All they think about is designing some gene to make humans sweat perfume or something like that.

bm: You probably misunderstood.

J: He knows more patent law than an attorney. He thinks of nothing but how to market his sweat gene.

bm: Are they all like that?

J: No, most are worse.

Whatever the positivist movement is, if modern scientists are spouting it,  it is unlikely that it is anything more than political, business oriented hype tripe.

if the room temperature yesterday was 17C and today is 34C to say that today is twice as hot as yesterday is meaningless...

Is it any more meaningful to say it is 17 degees celsius hotter than yesterday? Or to just say it is warmer than yesterday?

Well, mathematicians have been warning scientists for a long time that mathematics may have little or nothing to do with the real world. Not all mathematicians are Platonists! One of my favorites is a formalist. He believes math is a game invented by humans much like chess. The city I live in has been totally constructed on math. Math is the mortar that holds the bricks together. It is as artificial as a silver tinsel Christmas tree.

Buddhism and eastern thought as a whole have lots of problems with the way the western mind has structured the world. Scientists of the past figured out that prediction and the why are out. We are only left with description. And since it is all an illusion what are we describing?


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.
Of course that result can be rigorously obtained, but who cares?
Combinatorics is Algebra and Algebra is Combinatorics.

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