Hi everyone im new to this forum my name is cam. My dad needs help on one of his assignment questions would be grateful for some answers.
This is the question
Your experience has shown that the ready-mixed concrete supplier ‘Everconc’ delivers its order ‘on time’ with probability one half, one day late with probability one quarter, and two days late also with probability one quarter.
A second supplier, quite unrelated to the concrete supplier, called ‘Steelfix’, delivers its order ‘on time’ with probability two thirds, one date late with probability one sixth, and two days later with probability one sixth.
To complete your project according to your deadlines, you need both suppliers to deliver on time. A delay by either of them causes you to miss your deadline by a corresponding amount. Thus, for example, if the ‘Everconc’ supplier is on time but ‘Steelfix’ is late by one day, you are still late by one day.
Barring any other sources of possible delay, what is the probability that you will complete your project:
1. on time?
2. one day late?
3. two days late?
A third independent company can supply both concrete and re-bar steel such that they arrive together and are equally likely to be ‘on time’, one day late or two days late. From a probabilistic viewpoint, assuming that the combined costs of materials to your company are the same, do you prefer to keep ‘Everconc’ and ‘Steelfix’ or switch to the third company that supplies both?
Explain your answer and mention any advantages or disadvantages of having a sole supplier.