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#1 2020-01-06 04:42:49


Draft Lottery Probability question

I have a draft lottery probability question I really dont want to take the hours itd require for me to calculate manually and i dont know how to do it in excel/code.

I have 100 balls/tickets/items with team names on them. there are 6 unique teams and each team has a different number of balls. I'm looking for odds of each team getting each pick (probability table style)

Team 1    40
Team 2    20
Team 3    15
Team 4    12
Team 5    8
Team 6    5

Obviously the number of balls will be the percentage chance the team gets drawn 1st. where it gets complicate is the 2nd pick.  if one of team 1's 40 balls are selected first, the other 39 will be removed prior to selecting who goes 2nd. that means that for situations where team 1 is picked 1st, team 2 has a 33.33% chance of getting the 2nd choice as they will have 20 of the remaining 60 balls. however i also need to account for the scenarios where a team different than team 1 got the 1st pick for true probability of team 2 getting the #2 pick.

does this make sense?  any tools/tricks to doing this quickly?

#2 2020-02-06 13:47:14

Registered: 2012-04-29
Posts: 2,073

Re: Draft Lottery Probability question

I think a quick solution can be developed in Python; a simulation & data will be presented here. As for some initial predictions, combinatorics is not a strong suit; but I think that the order of the picks will mirror the teams, in descending order of  commonness, plus or minus 4%. We will see!

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