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#1 2019-04-01 06:15:54

Mathematic
Guest

Predicting Score Formula

A team is currently scoring with the run rate of 6.25 per over. The team has scored 188
in the 30 over while its 4 players are back in pavilion.
display projected score for next 5,10,15 and 20 overs if the team continue to score with current
run rate or with run rate of 7,8,9 and 10

#2 2019-04-02 01:35:19

Jai Ganesh
Administrator
Registered: 2005-06-28
Posts: 45,956

Re: Predicting Score Formula

Hi,

Although it may not help you fully, this may give you some idea.

Prediction

A prediction, or forecast, is a statement about a future event. A prediction is often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between the two terms; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations. (Contrast with estimation.)

Although future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is in many cases impossible, prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and hard."

Judgement-based prediction

In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion.

A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be of useful  -  if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field.

The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way. This type of prediction might be perceived as consistent with statistical techniques in the sense that, at minimum, the "data" being used is the predicting expert's cognitive experiences forming an intuitive "probability curve."

Statistics

In statistics, prediction is a part of statistical inference. One particular approach to such inference is known as predictive inference, but the prediction can be undertaken within any of the several approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one possible description of statistics is that it provides a means of transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When information is transferred across time, often to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting. Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction is often performed on cross-sectional data.

Statistical techniques used for prediction include regression analysis and its various sub-categories such as linear regression, generalized linear models (logistic regression, Poisson regression, Probit regression), etc. In case of forecasting, autoregressive moving average models and vector autoregression models can be utilized. When these and/or related, generalized set of regression or machine learning methods are deployed in commercial usage, the field is known as predictive analytics.

In many applications, such as time series analysis, it is possible to estimate the models that generate the observations. If models can be expressed as transfer functions or in terms of state-space parameters then smoothed, filtered and predicted data estimates can be calculated. If the underlying generating models are linear then a minimum-variance Kalman filter and a minimum-variance smoother may be used to recover data of interest from noisy measurements. These techniques rely on one-step-ahead predictors (which minimise the variance of the prediction error). When the generating models are nonlinear then stepwise linearizations may be applied within Extended Kalman Filter and smoother recursions. However, in nonlinear cases, optimum minimum-variance performance guarantees no longer apply.

To use regression analysis for prediction, data are collected on the variable that is to be predicted, called the dependent variable or response variable, and on one or more variables whose values are hypothesized to influence it, called independent variables or explanatory variables. A functional form, often linear, is hypothesized for the postulated causal relationship, and the parameters of the function are estimated from the data - that is, are chosen so as to optimize is some way the fit of the function, thus parameterized, to the data. That is the estimation step. For the prediction step, explanatory variable values that are deemed relevant to future (or current but not yet observed) values of the dependent variable are input to the parameterized function to generate predictions for the dependent variable.


It appears to me that if one wants to make progress in mathematics, one should study the masters and not the pupils. - Niels Henrik Abel.

Nothing is better than reading and gaining more and more knowledge - Stephen William Hawking.

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