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#1 Help Me ! » how to convert goals to asian handicap? » 2013-12-19 02:32:42

extjsjquery
Replies: 0

how to convert goals to asian handicap?







use poisson distribution foumula

when




1-0 0-0 0-1

2-0 1-1 0-2

2-1 2-2 1-2

.....

.....

.....

10-9 10-10 9-10

....

....

...

sum up could get win draw loss




for exmaple

home team expected 2 goals , away team expected 1 goal,




calculation outcome

1x2 %    60.6% - 21.2% - 18.3%     (1.65 - 4.72 - 5.48)




above is goals to win draw loss








below is goals to Ansian handicap when expected goals 2-1
....
....

Home -1.5 & -2.0     :    Away +1.5 & +2.0     30.3% - 69.7% (3.30 - 1.43)   

Home -1.5     :     Away +1.5     36.7% - 63.3% (2.72 - 1.58)   

Home -1.0 & -1.5     :    Away +1.0 & +1.5     41.7% - 58.3% (2.40 - 1.72)   

Home -1.0     :     Away +1.0     48.2% - 51.8% (2.07 - 1.93)   

Home -0.5 & -1.0     :    Away +0.5 & +1.0     55.2% - 44.8% (1.81 - 2.23)   

Home -0.5     : Away +0.5     60.6% - 39.4% (1.65 - 2.54)   

Home 0 & -0.5     :    Away 0 & +0.5     67.7% - 32.3% (1.48 - 3.10)   

Home 0     : Away 0     76.8% - 23.2% (1.30 - 4.31)   

Home 0 & +0.5     :    Away 0 & -0.5     79.6% - 20.4% (1.26 - 4.90)   

Home +0.5     :     Away -0.5     81.7% - 18.3% (1.22 - 5.48)   

Home +0.5 & +1.0:    Away -0.5 & -1.0     86.9% - 13.1% (1.15 - 7.65)   

Home +1.0     :     Away -1.0     92.8% - 7.2% (1.08 - 13.90)   

Home +1.0 & +1.5:    Away -1.0 & -1.5     93.3% - 6.7% (1.07 - 14.84)   

Home +1.5     :     Away -1.5     93.7% - 6.3% (1.07 - 15.78)
......
.......



anyone know how to convert goals to ansian handicap?

#2 Help Me ! » another odds ratio case » 2013-12-09 23:21:34

extjsjquery
Replies: 1

in online game, two team fight against each other

here
team a   strength  73% ,which corespond to 100% (for conveniece, here note 73)
team b   strenth   46

then odds ratio =73/(100-73)/ (46/(100-46)=73/27/(45/55)
no problem here


suppose team;s strength divided into two part  attck and defense
team a  attack=44    defense=6
team b  attack=64    defense=33
where 100 correspoinds to the best rank



in odds ratio formula, winthin a group ,  p,  100-p

since attack+defense is not equal to 100, which puzzled me.
I use several method,

for conveniece
team a attack note m
team a defense n
team b attck o
team b defense p


method 1
strenth=(attack +defense)/2   algebra average value
then use the fumula of odds ratio
odds ratio=((m+n)/2)(100-(m+n)/2)/ ( ((o+p)/2)/(100-((o+p)/2)))

method 2
strength=sqrt((attack +defense) geometry average value

methd 3
regard defense is unlike probilities,juse use odds ratio formula directly
odds ratio=m/p /(o/n)


method 4 


odds ratio= m/(100-m)/(p/(100-p))/  (o/(100-o)/(n/(100-n)))

method XX
......
...

which is right? or they were all wrong ? any solution pls give me help?


how to calculate odds ratio?

#3 Re: Help Me ! » odds ratio problem » 2013-12-09 15:39:08

Tks for your reply.  I input a wrong number that Number in 1st group:    a=26
  not 25    if 25  ,2 .777  is  right.
like formula Odds ratio = (a/c) / (b/d) ,what is the formula for probability?

#4 Help Me ! » odds ratio problem » 2013-12-09 04:31:33

extjsjquery
Replies: 3

I input a,b,c,d  use odds ratio calculator

Cases with positive outcome
Number in 1st group:    a=25
Number in 2nd group:    b=15
Cases with negative outcome
Number in 1st group:    c=18
Number in 2nd outcome:    d=30

and calculate

Results
Odds ratio    2.8889
95 % CI    1.2184 to 6.8497
z statistic    2.408
P = 0.0160

I know odds ratio is Odds ratio = (a/c) / (b/d)
my question is
what z statistic    and p mean ?

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