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#1 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2014-08-14 07:35:57

Send any file I could fill with these data, to my email

#11 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2014-08-03 09:35:40

To analize these data you must know other conceps about roulette.
We know that from 100 samples , about 68 will be below 1 sd, 95 below 2 sd and 99 below 3sd.
In our example we have got 1.4sd 4 times in a row of the same play as we witnessed in the first sample.
In case you need the actual data tell me a email to send it

br

#12 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2014-08-03 01:56:24

Coming  back
Let's more events.
You recieve a roulette sample. You scan it and find the best choice you should have played.
For example,  it was playing 12 numbers after some signal. This play has got +3.4 standard deviations in the first 400 trials
We make 4 more 400-trial-samples. We have got +1.4sd on each of the 4 samples playing what we found succesful in the first sample.

Supose we take the first sample(+3.4sd)  as a prior probability and the 4 new samples as posterior probability.
How do you calculate backwards probability using Bayes rules?
And,  what do all this test mean to determine a chance of random?

Warm regards

#14 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2013-01-28 22:12:55

Ok. I want to find out the actual mean of numbers that we have small samples.
Supose the ratio is 1/34 for the first 1000 trials, 1/35 for the 2nd 1000 trials, 1/33 at the 3rd 1000 and 1/33 at the 4th 1000 trials.
I guess we would be able to know the actual mean when we have 20k.
But the quest is to infer it sooner.
What are the math tool that you use?

#16 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2013-01-28 20:24:05

As I lack of strong math knoledge I´m trying to undestand the event I withness

#17 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2013-01-28 14:14:21

How could inferencial statistics help to know I want?

Can you forward a roulette example where you use the correlation, the regression, the least square method and the student distribution?

#18 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2013-01-01 00:42:55

ybot wrote:

Hi
About french european roulette
the chance to hit es 1/37

supose we are looking for 3 standard deviation events

43 hits in 1000 trials is 3 st dev(we played 1 number)


1)what does reaching 3 st dev mean?
2)what is the difference in strentgh of hitting 76/2000, 170/5000 or 319/10000(they are all +3sd)
3)what´s the difference in PLAYING the 1000 2000 or whatever or watch some data where we you  find 1 number with 3 st dev?
4)it is the same to reach 3 st dev for 1 number or 2 numbers(neighbors)?
5)having collectede data, you pick 4  numbers(isolated, not neighbors)) that their sum reaches 3 st dev. What is the difference with item 3) or if we actually play every spin?

I hope you undestood my questions

I believe they are hard to answer

Best regards

We might start again.
What does 48/1000 tell?
What are the predictions for the play of this number?
What are the chances to repeat 48/1000? (from 44 to 50/1000)
We finished 3 pages with no conclusions.

#19 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2012-12-31 02:53:30

But, it happened (in this example) in the first 1000 trials. The next 1000 trials it might hit 40 30 or 50, we don´t know it yet.
The real edge isn´t 72.8%, the sample is very short to have a conclusion

#21 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2012-12-31 02:24:36

We know we win 35, we are paid 35+1(the one we placed).

#23 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2012-12-30 10:49:40

48/1000 is +72.8% of the total wagged.
We have to know the real long term advantage

#24 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2012-12-30 10:03:29

So, as a [deleted], playing the basic strategy you would be able to be +1,5% over the HE.
And, as a [deleted] you could have a range of advantage over other regular players.
How do you know when you have the edge and how much?
At a moment in the year/month/decade you can say that you have (for example) 5% edge over any other player or the house. How would you gauge it?

#25 Re: Help Me ! » binomial standard deviation in french roulette » 2012-12-30 09:55:03

I undestand why you as yourself and think I'm mad. 
I work with non-random events daily.

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