To analize these data you must know other conceps about roulette.
We know that from 100 samples , about 68 will be below 1 sd, 95 below 2 sd and 99 below 3sd.
In our example we have got 1.4sd 4 times in a row of the same play as we witnessed in the first sample.
In case you need the actual data tell me a email to send it
Let's more events.
You recieve a roulette sample. You scan it and find the best choice you should have played.
For example, it was playing 12 numbers after some signal. This play has got +3.4 standard deviations in the first 400 trials
We make 4 more 400-trial-samples. We have got +1.4sd on each of the 4 samples playing what we found succesful in the first sample.
Supose we take the first sample(+3.4sd) as a prior probability and the 4 new samples as posterior probability.
How do you calculate backwards probability using Bayes rules?
And, what do all this test mean to determine a chance of random?
Ok. I want to find out the actual mean of numbers that we have small samples.
Supose the ratio is 1/34 for the first 1000 trials, 1/35 for the 2nd 1000 trials, 1/33 at the 3rd 1000 and 1/33 at the 4th 1000 trials.
I guess we would be able to know the actual mean when we have 20k.
But the quest is to infer it sooner.
What are the math tool that you use?
About french european roulette
the chance to hit es 1/37
supose we are looking for 3 standard deviation events
43 hits in 1000 trials is 3 st dev(we played 1 number)
1)what does reaching 3 st dev mean?
2)what is the difference in strentgh of hitting 76/2000, 170/5000 or 319/10000(they are all +3sd)
3)what´s the difference in PLAYING the 1000 2000 or whatever or watch some data where we you find 1 number with 3 st dev?
4)it is the same to reach 3 st dev for 1 number or 2 numbers(neighbors)?
5)having collectede data, you pick 4 numbers(isolated, not neighbors)) that their sum reaches 3 st dev. What is the difference with item 3) or if we actually play every spin?
I hope you undestood my questions
I believe they are hard to answer
We might start again.
What does 48/1000 tell?
What are the predictions for the play of this number?
What are the chances to repeat 48/1000? (from 44 to 50/1000)
We finished 3 pages with no conclusions.
So, as a [deleted], playing the basic strategy you would be able to be +1,5% over the HE.
And, as a [deleted] you could have a range of advantage over other regular players.
How do you know when you have the edge and how much?
At a moment in the year/month/decade you can say that you have (for example) 5% edge over any other player or the house. How would you gauge it?