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Topic review (newest first)
Well this is the first time I've ever been to this forum, and I must say you've all amazed me. That you all would put a fair amount of thought (actually breaking out calculators!) into my comrades' silly little bar drawing is astounding!
Thanks, I realized that after posting and then punching the numbers into my calculator. I never would have thought that instinctively. Maybe the guys he hangs out with think the same way at a gut level.
No, the chance of anyone getting it is always 1/30.
irspow is right. Even though there is no true advantage, mentally everyone wants 30, or as close as they can get.
Guys, I think your missing the point. grifta67 made it pretty clear that these guys really want to get the number 30. If your the last in rotation, your odds are significantly lower (before anyone has picked) than the guy who picks first. Obviously if the first nine guys miss it you will technically have the best statistical chance on your particular pick out of the ten.
I think there's an equal probability of everyone winning, it's just that it wouldn't be as exciting for the people who go last because they'll know what they're going to get.
I am not great with probabilities, but I have an idea that would be much fairer to everyone involved than either of the two methods above. It might take a little longer however, but then again you guys are going to be in a bar anyway.