Discussion about math, puzzles, games and fun. Useful symbols: ÷ × ½ √ ∞ ≠ ≤ ≥ ≈ ⇒ ± ∈ Δ θ ∴ ∑ ∫ • π ƒ ¹ ² ³ °
 

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A simulation is not enough, you have to interpret the results correctly. He probably did something like I did.
That is true. I wonder where his simulation went wrong.
35% is much too high just by inspection.
We'll have to see what he did.
I think his answer is way too high.
Ok. So, that answer is final? Then, we have to see how Agnishom did it.
Yes I know, I am still cleaning it up in my notes and I cleaned the post.
Your code still isn't correct. Leaving from three is #[[3]]=1 not Last[#]3!
The same answer I had originally by accident.
Well, there you have it. What is the new result?
Hmmmm, hard to argue with that one. By golly I think you are right. I did not look at it that way.
That means that P(entered at 1left at 3)=P(entered at 1 and left at 3)/P(left at 3).
Yes, that is the definition.
And, do you agree that P(AB)=P(A and B)/P(B)?
Yes, that looks good. 