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## Topic review (newest first)

bobbym
2013-04-01 13:43:10

A simulation is not enough, you have to interpret the results correctly. He probably did something like I did.

anonimnystefy
2013-04-01 13:37:22

That is true. I wonder where his simulation went wrong.

bobbym
2013-04-01 13:34:22

35% is much too high just by inspection.

anonimnystefy
2013-04-01 13:33:08

We'll have to see what he did.

bobbym
2013-04-01 13:28:11

I think his answer is way too high.

anonimnystefy
2013-04-01 13:27:32

Ok. So, that answer is final? Then, we have to see how Agnishom did it.

bobbym
2013-04-01 13:22:05

Yes I know, I am still cleaning it up in my notes and I cleaned the post.

anonimnystefy
2013-04-01 13:13:15

Your code still isn't correct. Leaving from three is #[[3]]=1 not Last[#]3!

bobbym
2013-04-01 13:11:23

The same answer I had originally by accident.

anonimnystefy
2013-04-01 13:08:14

Well, there you have it. What is the new result?

bobbym
2013-04-01 13:06:21

Hmmmm, hard to argue with that one. By golly I think you are right. I did not look at it that way.

anonimnystefy
2013-04-01 13:01:36

That means that P(entered at 1|left at 3)=P(entered at 1 and left at 3)/P(left at 3).

bobbym
2013-04-01 12:59:52

Yes, that is the definition.

anonimnystefy
2013-04-01 12:57:46

And, do you agree that P(A|B)=P(A and B)/P(B)?

bobbym
2013-04-01 12:56:10

Yes, that looks good.