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Yup! I looked at the Wiki article. But alas I haven't had time to really think about it all. I'm helping a friend move most of today.
I think the probability stays the same in both cases. Did you look at the Wikipeadia article on the Bertrand's box paradox.
Does the original problem state that the marbles are distinguishable or not?
The problem is called Bertrand's box paradox.
I agree this answer is wrong it says the answer is 2/3 because you are picking marbles not bags. That answer is if you were picking bags. The probability of you picking a white marble is 3/6 or simplified 1/2.
Are you referring to this: Bags of Marbles - Solution ?
Hi Anne Smith;
I quite agree with your last member. The options are only that it is a white or a black marble, because whether or not you have already selected marble 1 or two from bag A the next outcome is a white anyway.
The solution given for the problem of the white and black marbles is flawed. We are dealing with combinations here and not permutations. Once a white marble is drawn, it doesn't matter if it was the first or second marble. There are only two possible outcomes at this point and therefore the probability is one in two.